While recession odds have been dialed back in recent weeks, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal still see 33% odds of one coming within a year, compared with 22% at the start of 2025. Meanwhile, earnings estimates for the S&P 500 compiled by research group FactSet are 3% lower since then, the Journal said.

For investors, the risk now is that the slow drip of news on tariffs leads to complacency about the damage they might cause-the Nasdaq stock index closed a record high yesterday.

Trump said the U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese imports under the agreement, which he hailed as "maybe the largest deal in history."