An asteroid that's big enough to wipe out a city has a 1-in-43 chance of hitting our planet in the year 2032. But according to new calculations, there's an even smaller chance that it might crash into the moon instead.

It's certain that recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will swing close to Earth in 2032. The chances of an impact remain low — but with relatively limited observations so far, the odds are in flux.