Despite North Carolina losing to a Cooper Flagg-less Duke in the ACC Tournament semifinals, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi still has the Tar Heels in the Field of 68 in his latest Bracketology update. Just barely -- as the last of the “Last Four In” while Lunardi has Texas among the “First Four Out.”

With Boise State’s victory over San Diego State on Friday, the NCAA tournament bubble got much more interesting. That win came after both Texas and North Carolina lost, and ESPN’s Joe Lunardi projected the Tar Heels to be in over the Longhorns in his up-to-date Bracketology.

Joe Lunardi, ESPN's bracketology expert, has updated his NCAA Tournament projections ahead of Day 2 in Nashville.

According to ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Duke has the best chance to win the national title with a 28.5% forecast, Houston is next with 20.6% followed by Auburn at 13.6%. Duke has a 56% chance to make it to the Final Four compared to Auburn's 41.6% chance.

The Coloradoan asked ESPN bracketology guru Joe Lunardi about Colorado State's path to the NCAA Tournament. Here's what Lunardi said.

Copyright © 2025 Bleacher Report, Inc. A Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All Rights Reserved.

ESPN expert Joe Lunardi shared bracketology updates for Arkansas and Texas after the Razorbacks and Longhorns won SEC Tournament games.

With ACC Tournament play already impacting NCAA Tournament projections, Duke's biggest rival might make enough waves to crack the tournament.