The North Carolina Tar Heels lack the quality wins needed to make the NCAA Tournament. Joe Lunardi moved UNC to his "First Four Out" in bracketology.

Joe Lunardi of ESPN has updated his bracketology projections just hours before the NCAA Tournament Selection Show.

Despite North Carolina losing to a Cooper Flagg-less Duke in the ACC Tournament semifinals, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi still has the Tar Heels in the Field of 68 in his latest Bracketology update. Just barely -- as the last of the “Last Four In” while Lunardi has Texas among the “First Four Out.”

According to ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Duke has the best chance to win the national title with a 28.5% forecast, Houston is next with 20.6% followed by Auburn at 13.6%. Duke has a 56% chance to make it to the Final Four compared to Auburn's 41.6% chance.

The Coloradoan asked ESPN bracketology guru Joe Lunardi about Colorado State's path to the NCAA Tournament. Here's what Lunardi said.

It's going to be an extremely tense Selection Sunday for Hubert Davis and the North Carolina Tar Heels men's basketball program. The Tar Heels are one of the biggest bubble teams heading into the Selection Show on Sunday night.