The North Carolina Tar Heels lack the quality wins needed to make the NCAA Tournament. Joe Lunardi moved UNC to his "First Four Out" in bracketology.

Joe Lunardi of ESPN has updated his bracketology projections just hours before the NCAA Tournament Selection Show.

Despite North Carolina losing to a Cooper Flagg-less Duke in the ACC Tournament semifinals, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi still has the Tar Heels in the Field of 68 in his latest Bracketology update. Just barely -- as the last of the “Last Four In” while Lunardi has Texas among the “First Four Out.”

BYU was eliminated by Houston in the Big 12 tournament. Going into that game, BYU was already a lock to go to the NCAA Tournament. Despite th

According to ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Duke has the best chance to win the national title with a 28.5% forecast, Houston is next with 20.6% followed by Auburn at 13.6%. Duke has a 56% chance to make it to the Final Four compared to Auburn's 41.6% chance.

"Auburn has locked up the No. 1 overall seed regardless of further results,” Lunardi said in his latest report. Auburn currently ranks No. 2 in the NCAA NET rankings, but has 16 Quad I wins, three more than Michigan State, who has the next most. Duke, who is No. 1 in the NET, has eight Quad I wins.

The Coloradoan asked ESPN bracketology guru Joe Lunardi about Colorado State's path to the NCAA Tournament. Here's what Lunardi said.

With ACC Tournament play already impacting NCAA Tournament projections, Duke's biggest rival might make enough waves to crack the tournament.